You
are considering a new product launch. The project will cost $2,200,000,
have a four-year life, and have no salvage value; depreciation is
straight-line to zero. Sales are projected at 150 units per year; price
per unit will be $29,000, variable cost per unit will be $17,500, and
fixed costs will be $590,000 per year. The required return on the
project is 12 percent, and the relevant tax rate is 34 percent.
| a. |
Based
on your experience, you think the unit sales, variable cost, and fixed
cost projections given here are probably accurate to within ±10 percent.
What are the upper and lower bounds for these projections? What is the
base-case NPV? What are the best-case and worst-case scenarios? (Negative amount should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your NPV answers to 2 decimal places. (e.g., 32.16))
|
| Scenario | Unit Sales | Variable Cost | Fixed Costs | NPV |
| Base | $ | $ | $ | |
| Best | ||||
| Worst | ||||
| b. |
Evaluate the sensitivity of your base-case NPV to changes in fixed costs. (Negative amount should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answer to 3 decimal places. (e.g., 32.161))
|
| ΔNPV/ΔFC | $ |
| c. |
What is the cash break-even level of output for this project (ignoring taxes)? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places. (e.g., 32.16))
|
| Cash break-even |
| d-1 |
What is the accounting break-even level of output for this project? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places. (e.g., 32.16))
|
| Accounting break-even |
| d-2 |
What is the degree of operating leverage at the accounting break-even point? (Round your answer to 3 decimal places. (e.g., 32.161))
|
| Degree of operating leverage |
Explanation:
a.
b.
c.
d.
The
base-case, best-case, and worst-case values are shown below. Remember
that in the best-case, sales and price increase, while costs decrease.
In the worst-case, sales and price decrease, and costs increase.
|
| Using the tax shield approach, the OCF and NPV for the base case estimate is: |
| OCFbase = [($29,000 – 17,500)(150) – $590,000](0.66) + 0.34($2,200,000/4) |
| OCFbase = $936,100 |
| NPVbase = –$2,200,000 + $936,100(PVIFA12%,4) |
| NPVbase = $643,262.72 |
| The OCF and NPV for the worst case estimate are: |
| OCFworst = [($29,000 – 19,250)(135) – $649,000](0.66) + 0.34($2,200,000/4) |
| OCFworst = $627,385 |
| NPVworst = –$2,200,000 + $627,385(PVIFA12%,4) |
| NPVworst = –$294,412.58 |
| And the OCF and NPV for the best case estimate are: |
| OCFbest = [($29,000 – 15,750)(165) – $531,000](0.66) + 0.34($2,200,000/4) |
| OCFbest = $1,279,465 |
| NPVbest = –$2,200,000 + $1,279,465(PVIFA12%,4) |
| NPVbest = $1,686,182.18 |
b.
To
calculate the sensitivity of the NPV to changes in fixed costs we
choose another level of fixed costs. We will use fixed costs of
$600,000. The OCF using this level of fixed costs and the other base
case values with the tax shield approach, we get:
|
| OCF = [($29,000 – 17,500)(150) – $600,000](0.66) + 0.34($2,200,000/4) |
| OCF = $929,500 |
| And the NPV is: |
| NPV = –$2,200,000 + $929,500(PVIFA12%,4) |
| NPV = $623,216.22 |
| The sensitivity of NPV to changes in fixed costs is: |
| ΔNPV/ΔFC = ($643,262.72 – 623,216.22)/($590,000 – 600,000) |
| ΔNPV/ΔFC = –$2.005 |
| For every dollar FC increases, NPV falls by $2.005. |
c.
| The cash breakeven is: |
| QC = FC/(P – v) |
| QC = $590,000/($29,000 – 17,500) |
| QC = 51.30 |
d.
| The accounting breakeven is: |
| QA= (FC + D)/(P – v) |
| QA = [$590,000 + ($2,200,000/4)]/($29,000 – 17,500) |
| QA = 99.13 |
| At the accounting breakeven, the DOL is: |
| DOL = 1 + FC/OCF |
| DOL = 1 + ($590,000/$550,000) = 2.073 |
| For each 1% increase in unit sales, OCF will increase by 2.073%. |